The Amazon in crisis: Deforestation, climate change and the threshold of Ecosystem collapse

The Amazon rainforest, the largest tropical forest on the planet and a global climate regulator, is facing an unprecedented crisis that threatens its very existence. Currently, the region has lost approximately 20% of its forest cover in the last five decades, accumulating deforestation that exceeds 800,000 square kilometers, an area equivalent to the accumulated forest loss between 2001-2020. This process not only destroys biodiversity, but has transformed the Amazon from a carbon sink to a net emitting source, releasing nearly 1,000 million tons of CO₂ into the atmosphere annually, which represents an irreversible setback in its ability to mitigate global climate change.

The most recent data for 2025 reveal an alarming trend of uncontrolled acceleration: in May of this year, deforestation soared by 92% compared to the same month in 2024, accumulating an increase of 27% in the first half of the year. This drastic increase reflects not only the continuity of destructive practices, but the emergence of new patterns of destruction, where more than 51% of the deforestation detected in 2025 occurred on previously burned land, a record value that contrasts with the average of 6.6% recorded between 2016-2022. This dynamic suggests a destructive synergy between intentional fires and subsequent logging, creating a cycle of degradation that hinders the natural regeneration of the forest.

The expansion of the cattle frontier is the main direct cause of deforestation in the Amazon, responsible for the elimination of more than 800 million trees in just six years to create pastures, thus releasing 340 million tons of CO₂ annually, equivalent to 3.4% of global emissions. This activity not only eliminates forest cover, but ironically transforms a high-rainfall ecosystem into a region with lower water retention capacity, directly affecting local agricultural yields, since every 10 percentage points of forest loss reduces crop yields by 1.25% by altering regional rainfall patterns.

Alongside cattle ranching, soy and other extensive cash crops represent the second leading cause of deforestation, while illegal mining, especially in the western Amazon (Ecuador, Peru, Colombia), caused 9% of deforestation between 2005-2015 and polluted rivers with mercury, affecting food chains and indigenous communities.  Road infrastructure amplifies these impacts, as 95% of deforestation occurs within 5.5 km of roads, and projects such as the paving of BR-319 in Brazil threaten vast previously isolated areas.

Intentional fires to clear agricultural land burned more than 62,000 km² in 2024, an area larger than Costa Rica, establishing a new paradigm where secondary deforestation in burned areas exceeds direct logging. Recent scientific research using oxygen isotopes in tree rings shows that this burn-down cycle intensifies the hydrological cycle, leading to more extreme rainfall in the wet season (15-22% increase) and more severe droughts in the dry season (5.8-13.5% decrease) since 1980, altering the physiology of keystone species such as American cedar (Cedrela odorata) and arapari (Macrolobium acaciifolium).

Anthropogenic climate change is intensifying the Amazonian hydrological cycle through alterations in Atlantic and Pacific Ocean temperatures, generating an increasingly marked pattern of climate extremes. The dry season has lasted about a month in the southern Amazon since the mid-1970s, while the western region experienced "once-in-a-century" droughts in 2005, 2010 and 2015/2016, events that not only reduce evapotranspiration, but compromise the forest's ability to recycle its own moisture.  essential to maintain the Amazon monsoon.

Dendrochronological studies provide concrete evidence of drought intensification, showing that every three trees that die from drought in the eastern Amazon result in the death of a fourth additional tree by domino effect, even without being directly affected by drought. This cascading mortality is due to the reduction in moisture recycling, where fewer trees in the east generate greater aridity in the rest of the basin, creating a positive feedback that accelerates the transition to alternative savannah states, a process that may already be occurring in the eastern Amazon where the 20% deforestation threshold was exceeded.

Climate and ecological models converge in warning that if deforestation exceeds the 20-25% range, the forest will reach a critical tipping point between 2030-2050, irreversibly transforming into dry savanna. This non-linear transition implies the collapse of the water self-regulation mechanism, where the projected increase of 2-3°C in regional temperature and the reduction of rainfall in dry months would trigger widespread fires, mass mortality of species adapted to humidity, and the invasion of savannah species, altering ecosystem functions irreversibly.

The collapse of the Amazon would have planetary consequences beyond the loss of biodiversity, affecting the water security of 40 million people, including 2.2 million indigenous people who depend directly on the forest. In addition, studies identify global climate teleconnections, observing significant correlations between Amazon temperature anomalies and distant regions such as the Tibetan Plateau and Antarctica over the past four decades, indicating that Amazon instability can trigger climate cascades on a planetary scale. Areas protected by indigenous communities prove to be 83% more effective in reducing deforestation, highlighting the importance of local governance in mitigation.

The scientific evidence converges on an unequivocal conclusion: the Amazon is not simply degrading, but actively transitioning to a new ecosystem state with reduced capacity for carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The window of intervention is closing quickly, since without drastic measures to stop primary deforestation, restrict livestock expansion, strengthen indigenous governance and mitigate global climate change, the Amazonian ecosystem could reach the point of no return between 2030-2050, with irreversible consequences for the planetary climate, global biodiversity and the security of Amazonian peoples.